# Post Analysis - michaelshermer on Sagan's Dragon (2026-11-02) Author: [[Users/@michaelshermer/michaelshermer-x-profile|@michaelshermer profile]] · Lists: [[Users/@michaelshermer/Chronological List|chronological]] · [[Users/@michaelshermer/Topical List|topical]] · Topic: [[Topics/Religion, Trust and Civilization/Religion, Trust and Civilization|Religion, Trust and Civilization]] · Index: [[X Research]] > [!info] Interactions with [[marshallpittman]] > No posts from @michaelshermer to @marshallpittman found. Marshall has replied to him on Oct 11, 2026 (["#12 is the hardest to do!…"](https://x.com/marshallpittman/status/2109300754821361985)) and Oct 24, 2026 (["This is so sad. I read this for a couple of decades…"](https://x.com/marshallpittman/status/2114031033775538444)). He also took part in Oct 18–20 consciousness and simulation threads that tagged @michaelshermer (e.g. [2111820939352588346](https://x.com/marshallpittman/status/2111820939352588346)). Marshall bookmarked this post into "summarize". ## The post - **URL:** https://x.com/michaelshermer/status/2117268304180261109 - **Posted:** Mon Nov 2, 2026, 8:51 AM CST - **Metrics (X API, Nov 3, 2026, about 9:50 AM CT):** 9,276 views · 204 likes · 35 reposts · 40 replies · 5 quotes · 33 bookmarks - **Media:** 1 attachment (not read). > The epistemological problem behind the "supernatural" is illustrated by what I call (in Truth) Sagan's Dragon: > > Imagine that I tell you that I have a dragon in my garage. Would you like to see it? > > Sure you would! Who wouldn’t? Dragons are popular in works of fiction, so wouldn’t it be exciting if it turned out that dragons are real? > > But you need evidence to believe, so you ask to see this dragon. > > I eagerly oblige by taking you to my garage and opening the door. You look inside and see some boxes, paint cans, a ladder, a bicycle and other knickknacks, but no dragon. You ask, “where’s the dragon?” > > I reply, “oh, this is an invisible dragon.” > > An “invisible dragon?” you respond skeptically. > > Perhaps there’s a way to get around the dragon’s invisibility, you suggest, by sprinkling flour on the floor of the garage so that when the invisible dragon walks around, its footprints will become apparent. This would provide empirical evidence in support of a potentially objective truth about the existence of dragons. > > “That won’t work,” I explain, “because this invisible dragon hovers a foot above the ground.” > > “An invisible hovering dragon?” you raise your eyebrows in doubt. You then suggest that we get one of those portable thermometers everyone has been using during the pandemic and measure the temperature at different places in the garage to detect the dragon’s body heat. > > “Sorry,” I reply, “but this is a cold-blooded dragon. It doesn’t give off any heat.” > > “Let me get this straight,” you groan in exasperation. “This dragon of yours is invisible, can levitate, and gives off no heat whatsoever. What about the fire it breathes? Surely our thermometer can detect the hot fire from a fire-breathing dragon?” > > “Actually,” I dissemble, “this dragon breathes cold-fire, a little-known phenomenon vouchsafed only to this particular species of dragon.” > > By now, you are growing frustrated and ask me in a challenging voice: “What’s the difference between an invisible levitating cold-blooded cold-fire-breathing un-detectable dragon…and no dragon at all?!” > > The answer is none. There is no difference between an invisible levitating cold-blooded cold-fire-breathing un-detectable dragon…and no dragon at all. > > And these religious-like convictions don't help: > "I feel the presence of the dragon" > "I feel the love of the dragon" > "Through the dragon all things are possible" > "After I started believing in the dragon my life changed" ## Claim-by-claim Ratings: ✅ accurate · 🟡 partly right or simplified · ❌ wrong · ⚠️ misleading · ❓ could not verify · ◻ opinion or background knowledge, not re-checked this session. | # | Claim | Finding | Rating | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | "What I call (in Truth) Sagan's Dragon" | *Truth* (2026) uses it; the original is in Sagan (1995), ch. 10. | ✅ | | 2 | The dragon is invisible, floats, gives off no heat and can't be detected | This follows Sagan's sequence. | ✅ | | 3 | There is no difference between an undetectable dragon and no dragon | Sagan's conclusion, paraphrased. | ✅ | | 4 | This is the epistemological problem with the supernatural | A standard skeptical argument, and a contested one. | ◻ philosophical | ## Overall verdict ✅ Accurate. The invisible-dragon thought experiment is Carl Sagan's, from chapter 10 ("The Dragon in My Garage") of *The Demon-Haunted World* (1995). Shermer retells it in his book *Truth: What It Is, How to Find It, and Why It Still Matters* (Johns Hopkins, Jan 27, 2026). The point is the standard testability one: a claim that predicts no observable difference carries no evidence. Philosophers of religion dispute applying it to God, who is not proposed as a physical object. ## Gaps - The image (likely the book cover) was not read. - The 40 replies were not read. ## Sources - https://x.com/michaelshermer/status/2117268304180261109 - https://michaelshermer.com/truth-what-it-is-how-to-find-it-why-it-still-matters/ - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Demon-Haunted_World