# Research and Evidence Up: [[Thomas Sowell]] ## Sowell's core arguments (as used on X) | Argument | Where | Source opened | |---|---|---| | Equality of opportunity versus "cosmic justice" (equalizing life chances that are not socially caused); "Cosmic justice is irreconcilable with personal freedom based on the rule of law" | *The Quest for Cosmic Justice* (1999) | [Hoover Digest excerpt, Jan 30, 2000](https://www.hoover.org/research/quest-cosmic-justice) ✅ | | The constrained ("tragic") versus unconstrained vision of human nature | *A Conflict of Visions* (1987) | [Hoover profile](https://www.hoover.org/news/fellow-profile-thomas-sowell) ✅ | | "The anointed": elites who frame issues as crises only they can solve | *The Vision of the Anointed* (1995) | Hoover profile ✅ | | Disparities have many causes; the "invincible fallacy" | *Discrimination and Disparities* (2018) | Hoover profile ✅ | | Dispersed knowledge; "freedom is the right of ordinary people to find elbow room…" | *Knowledge and Decisions* (1980) | Hoover profile ✅ | ## Is progress made by lone geniuses? | Evidence | Finding | Source | |---|---|---| | Ogburn & Thomas (1922) | 148 independent duplicate inventions and discoveries | ◻ *Political Science Quarterly* 37(1) | | Merton (1961) | Multiples are the rule, singletons the exception | ◻ *Proc. Am. Phil. Soc.* 105(5) | | Darwin–Wallace (1858), Newton–Leibniz, Turing–Church (1936), Tesla–Ferraris (1885–88), Einstein–Hilbert (Nov 1915) | Independent or parallel work on the post's own examples | ◻ standard history | | Counterpoint | Some work does look hard to replace; general relativity is the usual example, as the post itself says | ◻ | ## Do innovators keep the value they create? - Nordhaus (2004), [NBER w10433](https://www.nber.org/papers/w10433): innovators capture about 2.2% of the social returns (range 1.3–3.3%). ✅ This supports the post. ## Is opportunity equal now? - Bell, Chetty, Jaravel, Petkova & Van Reenen (2019), [QJE 134(2)](https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/134/2/647/5218522): top-1% children are 10× as likely to become inventors as below-median children. The gap persists at similar math scores, and childhood exposure to innovation has causal effects ("lost Einsteins"). ## Musk's businesses and public money | Item | Figure | Source | |---|---|---| | NASA COTS development funding to SpaceX | ≈ $396M | [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/spacexs-successful-mission-boosts-commercial-credibility/) | | CRS-1 contract (2008) | $1.6B for 12 flights | [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-announces-launch-date-and-milestones-for-spacex-flight/) | | Tesla regulatory-credit revenue | $1.790B (2023), $2.763B (2024), $1.993B (2025) | [10-K 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025003063/R10.htm), [10-K 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/R31.htm) | | DOE ATVM loan | $465M (2010), repaid 2013 | ◻ | | Starlink subscribers | 13.6M consumer subscribers, 174 markets (Sept 30, 2026) | [SpaceX 8-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm) | | First trillionaire | ≈ $1.1T after the SpaceX IPO, Jun 12, 2026 (Forbes); has crossed back and forth since | [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/after-record-ipo-musks-spacex-faces-next-test-market-debut-2026-06-12/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/musk-spacex-tesla-ipo-trillionaire-billionaire-worth-rockets-7723f82b6063a9a17c194e25982cd66d), [Forbes Oct 21](https://www.forbes.com/sites/fionariley/2026/10/21/elon-musk-reclaims-trillionaire-status-after-gaining-94-billion-on-spacex-tesla-jump/) | | 2018 pay package | Reinstated by the Delaware Supreme Court, Dec 19, 2025 | [opinion](https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=389200) | ## Historical anecdotes - Van Gogh's sales: "more than a couple" ([Van Gogh Museum](https://www.vangoghmuseum.nl/en/art-and-stories/vincent-van-gogh-faq/how-many-paintings-did-vincent-sell-during-his-lifetime)); *The Red Vineyard* sold to Anna Boch in 1890 for 400 francs ([The Art Newspaper](https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2022/06/03/why-did-van-gogh-fail-to-sell-his-work)). - Galileo 1633, Semmelweis 1847/1865, Turing 1952, Tesla 1943 ◻ (see the People notes).