# Vocabulary Hub: [[Topics/Betting/Betting|Betting]] | Term | Meaning | |---|---| | Expected value (EV) | Average profit per bet over many repeats. For a 1-unit stake at net odds b with win probability p: EV = p·b − (1 − p). Bet only when it's positive. | | Edge | Your EV as a share of the stake; how far your probability beats the price. | | Overlay | A horse whose odds pay more than its true chance justifies (a positive-EV bet); the opposite is an underlay. | | Pari-mutuel (tote) | Pool betting: all stakes go into a pool, the operator takes its cut, and winners split the rest. Odds aren't fixed until the race starts, and big bets lower their own payout. | | Takeout / track take | The operator's cut of a pari-mutuel pool; about 19% in Hong Kong in Benter's years (his paper). | | Kelly criterion | Bet the fraction of bankroll that maximizes long-run growth; for a simple bet, f* = (p·b − (1 − p)) / b ◻. Fractional Kelly bets a set share (½, ⅓) of that to cut risk. | | Card counting | Tracking the cards dealt in blackjack to know when the remaining deck favors the player (Thorp, 1962). | | Griffin Book | A casino blacklist of cheats and counters circulated by the Griffin detective agency; Benter was in it about 1984 (Bloomberg). | | Fundamental handicapping | Predicting a horse's chances from data on the horse, jockey, track and past races, rather than from betting odds. | | Multinomial logit | A statistical model that turns each horse's factor scores into a set of win probabilities that sum to 1 (Bolton and Chapman, 1986; used by Benter). | | Public odds / implied probability | The win chance the betting pool implies for each horse after takeout; Benter blended these with his own model. | | Triple Trio | Hong Kong exotic bet: pick the first three (any order) in three set races; the 2001 HK$100M jackpot was later tied to Benter. | | Quinella | Pick the first two finishers in either order. |