# Bill Benter Topic: [[Topics/Betting/Betting|Betting]] · People in this topic are listed on the hub. - **Who:** William "Bill" Benter (b. 1957, Pittsburgh area), American gambler and statistician. Physics degree ◻; counted cards in Las Vegas from 1979 after reading Thorp's *Beat the Dealer*; blacklisted in the Griffin Book about 1984 ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code)). - **Hong Kong:** started with Alan Woods in 1984–85 on a $150K stake, lost about $120K the first season, split with Woods, then built his own model; about $600K in his first winning year and about $3M in 1990–91 ([Guinness](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/news/2025/8/a-billion-dollars-off-the-ponies-how-a-statistician-became-the-most-profitable-gambler)). - **Method:** multinomial logit model on fundamental factors, blended with the public's odds in a second logit; fractional Kelly staking; about 19% track take to overcome ([1994 paper](https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/decision/1994-benter.pdf)). - **Winnings:** "close to a billion dollars" (Bloomberg, 2018); "almost US$1 billion" ([SCMP](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2150721/how-american-gambler-unlocked-secret-hong-kong)). Estimates only. - **2001 Triple Trio:** the unclaimed HK$100M Happy Valley jackpot (Nov 6, 2001) was later tied to him (Guinness). - **Later:** back in Pittsburgh; Benter Foundation; Acusis (medical transcription) ◻. Public talk "What Are My Odds?" at ICCM 2004, Hong Kong ([YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVrZrJ-wtc)). ## Role in this topic - Subject of [[Users/@VipulKewatTech/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - VipulKewatTech on Bill Benter and the Expected Value Lecture (2026-10-24)|@VipulKewatTech's Oct 24 post]]: story broadly right, details off (1986 → about 1984; $180K → $150K; $900M → about $1B). The video in that post is **not** him.