Betting - j. marshall pittman

# Betting A topic on betting, gambling and the math behind it: expected value, edges, pari-mutuel pools, bet sizing (Kelly), card counting, computer handicapping, and later sports betting and prediction markets. It was started on Oct 24, 2026 from [[Users/@VipulKewatTech/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - VipulKewatTech on Bill Benter and the Expected Value Lecture (2026-10-24)|@VipulKewatTech's Bill Benter post]]. > **Why a new topic.** No existing hub covers betting, gambling or prediction markets. The nearest are [[Topics/Online Tools and Resources/Online Tools and Resources|Online Tools and Resources]] (the free MIT lecture) and [[Topics/Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech/Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech|Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech]] (repackaged lectures as engagement bait). ## Post analyses filed under this topic | Posted (CT) | Author | Analysis | Verdict | |---|---|---|---| | Sat Oct 24, 2026, 4:22 AM | [[Users/@VipulKewatTech/@VipulKewatTech\|@VipulKewatTech]] | [[Users/@VipulKewatTech/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - VipulKewatTech on Bill Benter and the Expected Value Lecture (2026-10-24)\|Bill Benter and the Expected Value Lecture]] | ❌ misleading: "secret Benter lecture" is MIT 6.041 Lecture 1 (Tsitsiklis); Benter details 🟡; EV formula ✅ | ## Trigger chain (times CT) | When (CT) | Post | Views | Note | |---|---|---:|---| | Wed Oct 21, 8:10 AM | [@VipulKewatTech, first copy](https://x.com/VipulKewatTech/status/2112894169429746001) | 455 | "secret Benter lecture" text | | Thu Oct 22, 1:10 AM | [@VipulKewatTech: "…taught in a 45-minute lecture by Professor John Tsitsiklis… The lecture is free online."](https://x.com/VipulKewatTech/status/2113150860624830608) | 6.5K | he names the real lecturer | | Fri Oct 23, 12:16 AM | [@VipulKewatTech, fourth copy](https://x.com/VipulKewatTech/status/2113499889879724167) | 28.4K | back to "secret Benter lecture" | | **Sat Oct 24, 4:22 AM** | **[@VipulKewatTech: "In 1986 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards…"](https://x.com/VipulKewatTech/status/2113924052444426738)** | 26.5K | the linked post | | Sat Oct 24, 9:11 AM | [@JosipRavlic: "…this is MIT professor John Tsitsiklis teaching Probability Models and Axioms…"](https://x.com/JosipRavlic/status/2113996732162089286) | n/a | correction in replies | ## Notes | Note | Covers | |---|---| | [[Topics/Betting/Vocabulary\|Vocabulary]] | EV, edge, overlay, pari-mutuel, takeout, Kelly, card counting, multinomial logit, Triple Trio | | [[Topics/Betting/Sources\|Sources]] | Every source used | ## Key numbers (Benter's 1994 paper, read this session) - Hong Kong average track take about **19%** during his five reported seasons; his quinella example assumes 17%. - Realistic maximum profit: **0.25–0.5%** of per-race pool turnover; 0.1–0.2% for a start-up. - About **470 races** bet a year; 4 of 5 seasons profitable, the losing one down about 20% of capital. - About 5 man-years to build the model, 5 more to reach high profitability. - Bet sizing: fractional Kelly (1/2 or 1/3 suggested). ## Timeline - 1956: John L. Kelly Jr., "A New Interpretation of Information Rate" (*Bell System Technical Journal*) ◻. - 1962: Edward O. Thorp, *Beat the Dealer* ◻. - 1979: Benter, 22, goes to Las Vegas to count cards (Guinness). - About 1984: Benter, Woods and partners land in the Griffin Book blacklist (Bloomberg). - 1984–85: Benter and Woods start in Hong Kong with $150K; lose about $120K in the first season and split (Guinness, Wikipedia). - 1986: Bolton and Chapman, "Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races", *Management Science* 32 ◻ (cited in Benter's paper). - Late 1980s: Benter's first winning year about $600K; about $3M in 1990–91 (Guinness). - 1994: Benter's "Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report". - Nov 6, 2001: Happy Valley Triple Trio jackpot about HK$100M, left unclaimed; later tied to Benter (Guinness, SCMP). - 2004: Benter's public talk "What Are My Odds?" at the International Congress of Chinese Mathematicians, Hong Kong ([YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVrZrJ-wtc)). - 2008: Alan Woods dies (Guinness). - 2010: MIT OCW publishes 6.041 Fall 2010 lectures by John Tsitsiklis, including Lecture 1. - May 3, 2018: Bloomberg, "The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code" (Kit Chellel). ## People - [[Topics/Betting/People/Bill Benter|Bill Benter]] - [[Topics/Betting/People/Alan Woods|Alan Woods]] - [[Topics/Betting/People/Edward O. Thorp|Edward O. Thorp]] - [[Topics/Betting/People/John L. Kelly Jr.|John L. Kelly Jr.]] - [[Topics/Betting/People/John Tsitsiklis|John Tsitsiklis]] (the lecturer in the misattributed video) - [[Topics/Betting/People/Vipul Kumar Kewat|Vipul Kumar Kewat]] (@VipulKewatTech) ## Cross-links - [[Topics/Online Tools and Resources/Online Tools and Resources|Online Tools and Resources]]: MIT OCW 6.041 is a free, legitimate probability course. - [[Topics/Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech/Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech|Reverse Flynn Effect and EdTech]]: "free lecture they don't want you to see" bait as a form of edutainment. - [[Topics/Economic Freedom and Prosperity/Economic Freedom and Prosperity|Economic Freedom and Prosperity]]: state gambling monopolies (the Hong Kong Jockey Club) and market efficiency. Rating key: ✅ accurate · 🟡 partly · ⚠️ misleading or unverified · ❌ wrong · ❓ unsupported or opinion · ◻ standard reference fact, source not opened this session. ## In this folder   *No notes in this folder are published yet.*