# *Prioritizing the World: Cost-Benefit to Identify the Smartest Targets for the Next 15 Years* (2014) Back to [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Books Overview|Books Overview]] · [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/BjornLomborg-x-profile|@BjornLomborg]] · Topic: [[Topics/Climate Change Science and Policy Debate/Climate Change Science and Policy Debate|Climate Change Science and Policy Debate]] > **Reference outline for a reader who has read the book.** This is the Copenhagen Consensus Center's 2014 book on the UN's then-draft Sustainable Development Goals. I did not have the typeset book this run ⚠️. Facts below come from the CCC book and project pages, Amazon product details, Richard N. Cooper's *Foreign Affairs* capsule review (which supplies the subtitle), and the Center's free **Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of the Final OWG Outcome** PDF (75 pages, © 18 August 2014, ISBN **978-1-940003-08-5**), which I opened. The printed book is longer than that report (Amazon: **128** pages for ISBN 978-1-940003-16-0) and includes a Lomborg introduction cited as p. 4 by a 2015 Cambridge dissertation the Center hosts. I have not checked the typeset introduction or any other book chapter against the PDF ⚠️. ## Publication facts - **Editor / author:** Bjørn Lomborg, for the Copenhagen Consensus Center. Amazon lists him as author; a 2015 dissertation hosted on the CCC site cites "Lomborg, Bjorn. 2014. 'Prioritizing the World: Introduction.' In *Prioritizing the World.* Copenhagen Consensus Center." - **Full title:** *Prioritizing the World: Cost-Benefit to Identify the Smartest Targets for the Next 15 Years* (subtitle as given in Cooper's May/June 2015 *Foreign Affairs* review). - **Publisher:** Copenhagen Consensus Center. Amazon product details for ISBN-13 **978-1-940003-16-0** (ISBN-10 **1940003164**): paperback, publication date **1 October 2014**, **128** pages, 5.5 × 8.5 in. A second listing, ISBN-13 **978-1-940003-09-3** (ISBN-10 **1940003091**), is catalogued at **118** pages ⚠️; I did not open either printing and cannot say how they differ. - **Companion report, not the book:** the 18 August 2014 *Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of the Final OWG Outcome* (letter-size PDF, 75 pages per `pdfinfo`, barcode ISBN **978-1-940003-08-5**, created 22 August 2014). Signed "Bjorn Lomborg on behalf of the Copenhagen Consensus Center." It rates the Open Working Group's **19 July 2014** Final Outcome Document. That is the public, dated source for the ratings summarised below. The book came out about six weeks later. - **Project:** the **Post-2015 Consensus**, CCC's benefit-cost work on the goals that would replace the Millennium Development Goals in 2015. The August report is explicit that the ratings are **preliminary** ("much nuance… has been omitted") and that "full, peer-reviewed economic evidence" would follow "over the coming half year (2014)." Those papers, plus a later Nobel panel, became *The Nobel Laureates' Guide to the Smartest Targets for the World 2016–2030* (2015, next in this queue) and the academic volume [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Prioritizing Development|*Prioritizing Development*]] (Cambridge University Press, 2018). - **Inputs to the August ratings:** interviews with **32** economists "in their respective fields," listed on the last page of the PDF (and reproduced on the Amazon author page). Names already in this archive include Kym Anderson, Isabel Galiana, Prabhat Jha, Hans-Peter Kohler, Anil Markandya and George Psacharopoulos. The PDF misspells a few affiliations (e.g. "Standford," "Hanneman" for Michael Hanemann). ## Thesis The MDGs were few and, in CCC's telling, highly effective (halve poverty and hunger; cut child mortality by two-thirds). The OWG's draft replacement was **169** targets and **4,369** words — down from 212 targets at the 12th OWG session, but only 20 words shorter. Limited aid cannot hit all of them at once, so the targets should be ranked by social, environmental and economic benefit per dollar, not by how many interest groups keep them on the list. The CCC book page's public figure is that the world would spend **$2.5 trillion** in development aid from 2015–2030, and that "making just one target better can do hundreds of billions of dollars worth of good." I have not independently checked the $2.5 trillion total ⚠️. Lomborg's introduction, as cited by Markus Anderljung (Cambridge, 2015; hosted on the CCC "Weighing the World" page), says a cost-benefit analysis "need not be a complete decision procedure": rights, politics and distribution can still be weighed by the decision-maker (Anderljung cites Lomborg 2014, p. 4). The August report itself tells readers that rights-based and political arguments were set aside on purpose, not because they do not matter. ## Rating scale (August 2014 assessment, p. 2) | Band | Meaning | |---|---| | **Phenomenal** | Robust evidence of benefits more than **15×** costs | | **Good** | Benefits **5–15×** costs | | **Fair** | Benefits **1–5×** costs | | **Poor** | Benefits smaller than costs, or the target is poorly specified (internally inconsistent, or it incentivises the wrong activity) | | **Uncertain** | Not enough is known about the policies that would hit the target, or about their costs and benefits | Benefits include health and environmental effects, monetised. The report's own comparison table (cover / p. 1): | | MDGs | High-Level Panel | 11th OWG | 12th OWG | Final OWG (19 July 2014) | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Targets | 18 | 54 | 139 (table; the CCC web page also says 140) | 212 | **169** | | Phenomenal (wholly) | — | — | 13 | 27 | **13** | | Poor (wholly) | — | — | 10 | 23 | **9** | | Words in target statements | 374 | 889 | 2,360 | 4,389 | **4,369** | The drop from 27 phenomenal / 23 poor at the 12th session to 13 / 9 in the final is, the report says, mostly because targets were **combined**, so fewer rows were purely green or purely red. ## Phenomenal, almost-phenomenal and poor targets These lists are from the August assessment's summary (pp. 2–4 of the PDF, numbered 2–4 in the running footer). Wording is abbreviated from the OWG text; the PDF has the full target language and a later "explanation" page for each. I did not re-type those explanation pages ⚠️. **Wholly phenomenal (13):** 2.b (cut agricultural export subsidies and related trade distortions, in line with the Doha mandate); 3.7 (universal sexual and reproductive health care, including family planning); 3.a (Framework Convention on Tobacco Control); 3.d (early warning and management of national and global health risks); 4.2 (quality early-childhood development, care and pre-primary education); 5.6 (sexual and reproductive health and rights, per ICPD and Beijing); 6.a (international cooperation on water and sanitation, including harvesting, desalination, efficiency, treatment and reuse); 8.10 (access to banking, insurance and financial services); 8.a (Aid for Trade, especially for LDCs); 9.3 (finance and market access for small-scale enterprises); 14.4 (end overfishing and IUU fishing; restore stocks to MSY); 14.6 (prohibit fisheries subsidies that drive overcapacity, overfishing and IUU fishing); 17.10 (a universal, rules-based WTO system, including concluding the Doha Development Agenda). **Almost phenomenal (12), mixed with lower-rated components:** 2.2 (end malnutrition, including stunting and wasting); 3.3 (end AIDS, TB, malaria and neglected tropical diseases); 3.4 (cut premature NCD deaths by one-third); 3.8 (universal health coverage); 3.b (R&D and access to medicines, including TRIPS flexibilities); 7.1 (universal access to affordable, reliable, modern energy); 7.b (modern energy infrastructure in developing countries, LDCs and SIDS); 10.b (ODA, FDI and other flows to where the need is greatest); 12.c (rationalise inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies); 14.7 (economic benefits to SIDS and LDCs from sustainable marine use); 17.6 (science, technology and innovation cooperation). **Wholly poor (9):** 1.3 (national social-protection systems and floors, with substantial coverage of the poor by 2030); 2.4 (sustainable, climate-resilient food systems that also raise production and improve land — the report treats the bundle as internally in tension); 4.3 (equal access to affordable technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university); 4.7 ("education for sustainable development," global citizenship, cultural diversity, etc.); 7.2 (substantially increase the share of renewable energy in the global mix by 2030); 8.9 (sustainable tourism); 9.2 (raise industry's share of employment and GDP, and double it in LDCs); 12.b (tools to monitor sustainable-tourism impacts); 17.18 (by 2020, much more high-quality data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, location, and other characteristics). **Mostly poor (5):** 3.5 (substance-abuse and alcohol treatment); 4.4 (raise by "x%" the number of youth and adults with relevant skills); 8.5 (full and productive employment and equal pay for all); 10.4 (fiscal, wage and social-protection policies to "progressively achieve greater equality"); 17.8 (fully operationalise the Technology Bank and STI mechanism for LDCs by 2017). Cooper's review singles out reducing agricultural import barriers and early-childhood / pre-primary education as high value, and "universal affordable higher education" and "expanding renewable energy" as cases where estimated costs outweigh benefits — which matches 2.b / 4.2 versus 4.3 and 7.2. ## How the claims have held up - **The UN did not shorten the list.** The 2030 Agenda adopted on **25 September 2015** kept **17 goals and 169 targets**. The focusing argument lost at the UN. Lomborg has used that fact ever since, including in *Best Things First* (2023) and in 2026 X posts, as the reason to pick a short list of "best buys" inside the SDGs rather than treat all 169 as equal. - **Trade and Doha (2.b, 17.10).** The Doha Development Agenda was not concluded. Trade remains a high-ranked item in later CCC work; see the [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Free Trade Benefits Dwarfing Costs (2026-02-01)|Feb 1 free-trade analysis]] and [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Best Things First|*Best Things First*]]. - **Health, nutrition and family planning (3.7, 5.6, 2.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.a).** These stay at the top of later rankings (nutrition, vaccines, TB, malaria, tobacco, family planning). See [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Agricultural R&D $5.5bn Saving 133 Million from Hunger (2026-05-17)|ag R&D and hunger (May 17)]], [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Tuberculosis as a Best Buy (2026-09-25)|TB as a best buy (Sep 25)]] and [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Chronic Disease Policies Saving 1.5 Million Lives (2026-02-12)|chronic disease (Feb 12)]]. - **Early childhood (4.2) vs tertiary access (4.3).** The split is stable in later CCC education papers: cheap early and school-health interventions rank high; a universal affordable-university target is treated as a subsidy from the poor to those already heading for college. I did not re-open the 2014 education paper ⚠️. - **Renewables target (7.2) rated poor; fossil-fuel subsidy reform (12.c) almost phenomenal.** That pairing is the through-line of Lomborg's later climate writing: he backs ending inefficient fossil subsidies and cheap energy access (7.1, also almost phenomenal), and rejects a rapid rise in today's renewables share as a poor use of development money. See [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on NetZeroCostBenefit and EU Net Zero for 0.0268 Degrees (2026-11-10)|NetZeroCostBenefit (Nov 10)]] and [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Prioritizing Development|*Prioritizing Development*]]. - **Social-protection floors (1.3) rated poor.** This is one of the more contested red ratings. Rights-based and "leave no one behind" critics treat floors as a justified claim, not a cost-benefit residual. Anderljung's dissertation flags the usual CBA worries (discount rates, rights, and "wealth distortion" in willingness-to-pay) and notes CCC's reply that the analysis is an input, not a complete rule. - **The $2.5 trillion aid figure** and the "hundreds of billions from one better target" claim were not re-derived ⚠️. - **No DCSD connection.** The Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty episode concerns *The Skeptical Environmentalist* (2001) and does not apply to this book. ## Reception - **Richard N. Cooper**, capsule review in *Foreign Affairs*, May/June 2015 (published 20 April 2015): summarises the 169-target, 4,000-word contrast with the shorter MDGs, the "trillions" of assistance over 15 years, and the high- vs low-value examples above. - **Matt Ridley**, "Priorities and goals for aid," *Wall Street Journal* essay republished on his site **2 August 2014** (so this is the mid-2014 12th-session colouring — 27 phenomenal, 23 poor — not the 18 August final counts). He quotes U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth M. Cousens: "I really don't like you putting one of my favorite targets in red." Then: "I'm glad you're saying it, because we all need to hear economic evidence that challenges us." The same Cousens/Ridley lines are printed as an Amazon editorial blurb for the October book. Ridley also records Lomborg calling the June colouring "quick and dirty," with peer-reviewed papers and a Nobel-laureate ranking still to come. - Amazon also prints welcoming lines from **Amina Mohammed** (then the Secretary-General's Special Adviser on Post-2015 Development Planning) and **Richard Morgan** (UNICEF, Senior Adviser on the Post-2015 Agenda). I have not opened the original UN/UNICEF remarks ⚠️. - **Markus Anderljung**, Cambridge master's dissertation (2015), summarised on the CCC "Weighing the World" page (15 August 2015): a sympathetic but critical review of CCC's ethics (rights, pure time preference in the discount rate, distribution, and wealth distortion). He cites the book's introduction at p. 4. I did not open the full dissertation ⚠️. ## Links to his X posts and later books - The "too many SDG targets, pick the best buys" line is the frame of [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Best Things First|*Best Things First*]] (2023) and of the 2018 academic follow-up [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Books/Prioritizing Development|*Prioritizing Development*]]. Next in this queue is *The Nobel Laureates' Guide to the Smartest Targets for the World 2016–2030* (2015). - Trade: [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Free Trade Benefits Dwarfing Costs (2026-02-01)|free trade (Feb 1)]]. - Nutrition and health: [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Agricultural R&D $5.5bn Saving 133 Million from Hunger (2026-05-17)|ag R&D and hunger (May 17)]], [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Tuberculosis as a Best Buy (2026-09-25)|TB (Sep 25)]], [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on Chronic Disease Policies Saving 1.5 Million Lives (2026-02-12)|chronic disease (Feb 12)]]. - Climate and energy costs: [[Authors/@BjornLomborg/Post Analyses/Post Analysis - BjornLomborg on NetZeroCostBenefit and EU Net Zero for 0.0268 Degrees (2026-11-10)|NetZeroCostBenefit (Nov 10)]].