![[images/Why Nations Lose Sleep Over SpaceX.webp]] **Creator:** Maxinomics · **Published:** 2024-12-09 · **Length:** 12:29 · [Watch on YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGGtZtCKy_Y) > *There's a new, very real space race. But this time the goal isn't just getting to space, it's to occupy space. The best, most valuable areas of space.* (video description) ## 1) Detailed outline ### [0:00] The original space race - Phil opens by contrasting today's rockets that land themselves with the first space race, which was a race just to get into space and say you'd been there. - The new race isn't about touching space but occupying it, claiming the best and most valuable areas. He says SpaceX is the only reason this race is on, because it solved the biggest problem of the first one. - When Sputnik went up, something made by humans had left the planet for the first time, and people could watch it streak across the sky. Most found it unnerving: many believed something up there could look down, listen, and maybe drop bombs. - That unease, set off by Sputnik's radio signal, launched the first space race, with the Soviets far ahead early: - 1957: Sputnik, then the first animal in orbit (the dog Laika) a month later. - 1959: the first human-made object to reach the Moon's surface. - 1961: Yuri Gagarin becomes the first human to orbit Earth. Alan Shepard follows a month later as the first American in space, but his flight was a roughly 15-minute up-and-down hop, far short of Gagarin's full orbit. - In response, the US made the finish line official with Kennedy's "We choose to go to the moon in this decade" speech, and the two countries raced to the Moon. ### [1:02] Moon landing and decline - 1965: the Soviets beat the US to the first spacewalk, the last time they would lead. - 1968: Apollo 8 orbits the Moon, takes the famous Earthrise photograph, and gives humans their first look at the far side of the Moon. - 1969, 12 years after the race began: Apollo 11 lands ("one small step for man"). - Then, almost as suddenly as it began, the race stopped. The US had won, and space faded into the background. ### [2:18] The high cost of space travel - Phil says it stopped not for lack of things to do in space but because the cost couldn't be justified. About 4% of the federal budget went to getting astronauts to the Moon each year, and there were protests over the cost throughout. - Once boots hit the Moon, Congress asked why the US needed to go back and decided it didn't. - For the next 40 years, relative to the pace of the race, space activity plateaued and then fell. The Mars rovers, the Mir space station, the International Space Station, and deep-space probes were important but small and bespoke, and they didn't change life on Earth. - Everything had to be lifted out of the atmosphere against gravity at about $1.5 billion per launch. Launches were planned years in advance with rockets built for that one mission, and they sometimes ended in catastrophic failure. Building anything big in space was impossible. - The cost to put 1 kg in orbit (about a bunch of bananas) actually rose after the Moon landing. All figures are inflation-adjusted, with a few exceptions like Russia's Soyuz, whose true cost nobody is sure of: - Vanguard, the first US rocket system in the late 1950s: nearly $1 million per kg. - Saturn rockets, used for most of Apollo: under $10,000 per kg. - The Space Shuttle, a cost disaster: back up to $61,000 per kg, where it stayed for decades. ### [4:11] SpaceX revolutionizes cost - Then SpaceX's Falcon rocket cleared the tower and dropped the cost to about $4,000 per kg. - Seven years later SpaceX stunned the world by landing a rocket back at the launch site, which made the company famous and pushed the cost down further to about $1,367 per kg. - From then on SpaceX became the preferred launch provider for US companies, the US government, and Western allies. This year (2024), 90% of all payload mass going to space will ride on a SpaceX rocket, an enormous competitive advantage that Phil expects to grow. ### [5:05] The new race for territory - Cheap launches made it realistic to look up and ask which part of space you want to occupy, because the useful space around Earth is smaller than it seems. - A beach house is worth more than a house five blocks inland, and satellite locations work the same way. The Moon has only two areas known to have water. - Nations, militaries, and companies know from centuries of conflict that if you aren't present, you don't make the rules. So they're asking which part of space they need to occupy. - Annual rocket launches have climbed steadily since bottoming out in 2005. The stakes are higher than in the 1960s because the goal is permanent occupation. - Phil names three strategic areas: low Earth orbit, geosynchronous orbit, and the Moon. ### [5:58] Strategic orbital assets: low Earth orbit and spectrum - Low Earth orbit sits about 300 to 1,000 miles up, and objects there circle Earth about every 90 minutes. That's high enough for one satellite to see a large area and low enough for high-resolution imaging and signal round trips of a few milliseconds. - Starlink lives here. Arriving first, SpaceX picked the best altitude for space-based internet. With about 6,000 satellites at that height, it's very unlikely another constellation will sit beneath it, so Starlink gets interference-free line of sight and lower latency than any competitor. - Every signal to or from a satellite (say, a refreshed web page sent down to your laptop) travels on a specific radio frequency, called spectrum. The amount of data any frequency can carry is limited. - On the ground, governments auction spectrum. In 2021 AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile paid a combined $80 billion for the spectrum best suited to 5G. - In space it's first come, first served: each orbital slot is assigned its spectrum along with its physical location. The UN's International Telecommunication Union (ITU) runs the registry, along with national agencies like the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC). ### [7:33] The geosynchronous satellite war - At about 22,000 miles up, a satellite stays over the same spot on Earth, which is ideal for communications and for constantly watching places like suspected missile sites, hurricane formation off West Africa, or the Taiwan Strait. - These orbits are already limited or full, and high-demand slots over North America, Europe, and East Asia keep gaining value as imaging improves. - Images that used to be about 10 m per pixel are now 2.5 m per pixel, as confirmed by the US Space Force. In August 2024 China placed a satellite in stationary orbit just east of Taiwan that can see objects down to 2.5 m day or night, even through clouds, enough to track any naval vessel. ### [8:24] Lunar resource competition - About 230,000 miles farther out is the Moon, where building structures and permanent bases is becoming cost-effective. - The Moon has valuable metal deposits that will be mined, and helium-3, long sought as a holy-grail fuel for nuclear fusion. - It also has water ice in two places: a little at the north pole and most of it at the south pole, in an area about the size of Switzerland, hidden in craters permanently shielded from the Sun. - Water can support life or be turned into rocket fuel, since most rockets burn liquid oxygen. That guarantees competition over lunar base sites. - Whoever arrives first and can move enough equipment and people to build bases will heavily influence how the Moon is governed. Phil cites "possession is nine-tenths of the law" and says transport capacity is the key to the Moon. ### [9:18] SpaceX dominance and power - Starship is SpaceX's upcoming workhorse. It has launched and landed three times and was chosen as the lander for NASA's next crewed Moon mission under the Artemis program, which targets the south pole and its water. - It carries a payload 50% larger than Falcon Heavy's, 100 metric tons in its first version (about eight Caterpillar D6 bulldozers), with a stated goal of 200 tons within a few years. Its bigger cargo bay also fits bulky items that aren't heavy but can't be made smaller. - Phil sums up SpaceX's position: rockets that carry more and are reusable, with many more coming as Starship enters service; the only space internet constellation able to serve huge numbers of residential, commercial, and military customers; and three launch sites, more than any other provider, including Starbase in Texas, the world's only private commercial spaceport. - He says SpaceX increasingly resembles the dominant companies of earlier technology shifts: Standard Oil in the move from whale oil to kerosene lighting, Microsoft in personal computers, and Google in search. ### [10:20] Space as a military asset - What gets lost in footage of self-landing rockets is how big a military asset SpaceX is. - Russia's usual wartime playbook is to take over communications in a war zone and spread propaganda. Starlink blocked that when SpaceX sent 1,000 receivers to Ukraine a couple of months into the invasion, and it's widely credited as a key factor in Ukraine's resistance. - Phil says that ability to change a battlefield outcome is how militaries have thought about space for most of the last century. He closes with a well-known space-power maxim: "Who controls low Earth orbit controls near-Earth space. Who controls near-Earth space dominates Terra. Who dominates Terra determines the destiny of humankind." ### [11:25] Sponsor: Morning Brew - Phil teases the next video on tariffs and thanks the sponsor, Morning Brew, which he says keeps him current on the tariff debate. - He says nine recent issues touched on tariffs or related topics (cabinet appointments, supply chains, the US dollar, China), that 4.4 million people subscribe, and that the newsletter is free. ## 2) Things mentioned ### Economics, markets, and policy - **Cost to orbit per kilogram (inflation-adjusted):** nearly $1 million on Vanguard, under $10,000 on Saturn, $61,000 on the Space Shuttle, about $4,000 on early SpaceX Falcon, and about $1,367 after reusable landings. - **Apollo spending:** about 4% of the US federal budget per year, with public protests over the cost. - **Legacy launch cost:** about $1.5 billion per launch, planned years in advance with single-mission rockets. - **SpaceX launch market share:** about 90% of all payload mass sent to space in 2024. - **Global rocket launches:** rising every year since bottoming out in 2005. - **Orbital real estate:** the beach-house analogy for scarce, valuable satellite locations. - **Radio spectrum:** a limited resource auctioned on Earth but assigned first come, first served in orbit. - **2021 5G spectrum auction:** AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile paid a combined $80 billion. - **International Telecommunication Union (ITU):** the UN agency that runs the orbital slot and spectrum registry. - **Federal Communications Commission (FCC):** the US agency involved in spectrum and orbital assignments. - **"Possession is nine-tenths of the law":** applied to who will govern the Moon. - **Technology-shift monopolies:** Standard Oil, Microsoft, and Google as comparisons for SpaceX. - **Space as military high ground:** the closing low Earth orbit, near-Earth space, Terra maxim. ### Space programs, vehicles, and products - **Sputnik (1957):** the first artificial satellite. - **Laika:** the first animal in orbit, a month after Sputnik. - **Soviet Moon impact (1959):** the first human-made object on the Moon. - **Vostok 1 (1961):** Yuri Gagarin's orbit. - **Freedom 7 (1961):** Alan Shepard's suborbital flight of about 15 minutes. - **First spacewalk (1965):** a Soviet first. - **Apollo 8 (1968):** the first lunar orbit, the Earthrise photo, and the first human view of the far side. - **Apollo 11 (1969):** the first Moon landing. - **Vanguard, Saturn rockets, the Space Shuttle, and Soyuz:** the cost-per-kilogram comparisons. - **Mars rovers, Mir, the International Space Station, and deep-space probes:** post-Apollo programs Phil calls small and bespoke. - **SpaceX Falcon rockets and reusable booster landings:** the cost breakthrough. - **Falcon Heavy:** Starship carries about 50% more. - **Starship:** 100-ton payload (about eight Caterpillar D6 bulldozers), a 200-ton goal, and three launches and landings so far. - **Starlink:** about 6,000 low Earth orbit satellites; 1,000 receivers sent to Ukraine. - **Starbase, Texas:** the world's only private commercial spaceport, one of SpaceX's three launch sites. - **NASA Artemis:** the crewed lunar south-pole landing that will use Starship as its lander. - **Chinese geostationary surveillance satellite (August 2024):** parked east of Taiwan with 2.5 m resolution. ### Companies and organizations - **SpaceX:** the video's subject. - **NASA:** Apollo and Artemis. - **The Soviet space program and Russia:** the first space race and the Ukraine war. - **US Space Force:** confirmed the 2.5 m geosynchronous imaging resolution. - **AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile:** the 5G spectrum buyers. - **Standard Oil, Microsoft, and Google:** historical dominant-firm comparisons. - **Caterpillar:** the D6 bulldozer used as a payload yardstick. - **Morning Brew:** the sponsor and Maxinomics' parent; 4.4 million subscribers. ### Places and orbital regions - **Low Earth orbit:** about 300 to 1,000 miles up, with about 90-minute orbits. - **Geosynchronous orbit:** about 22,000 miles up, with slots over North America, Europe, and East Asia in high demand. - **The Moon:** about 230,000 miles beyond; metals, helium-3, and water ice at the poles, mostly in a Switzerland-sized area of the south pole. - **Taiwan Strait, West Africa, and suspected missile sites:** examples of places watched from geosynchronous orbit. - **Ukraine:** where Starlink kept communications open during Russia's invasion. ## 3) Biographies ### Phil Andrews (presenter) Phil Andrews is the producer and on-camera host of Maxinomics ("the guy in the videos and the comments"), a Morning Brew channel that explains economics, business, and geopolitics through stories. Here he argues that SpaceX's cheap launches turned space into contested territory. ### Yuri Gagarin (mentioned) Soviet cosmonaut (1934–1968) who became the first human in space and the first to orbit Earth, aboard Vostok 1 on April 12, 1961. ### Alan Shepard (mentioned) NASA astronaut (1923–1998) who became the first American in space on May 5, 1961, aboard Freedom 7. The flight lasted about 15 minutes. He later walked on the Moon on Apollo 14. ### Laika (mentioned) The Soviet dog launched on Sputnik 2 in November 1957, the first animal to orbit Earth. ### John F. Kennedy (appears in a clip) The 35th US president (1961–1963). His 1962 "We choose to go to the moon" speech set the Moon landing as the space race's finish line. ### Neil Armstrong (appears in a clip) NASA astronaut (1930–2012) and Apollo 11 commander, the first person to walk on the Moon, heard saying "one small step for man." ### Everett Dolman (quoted, not named) American space-power theorist and professor at the US Air Force's School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. The closing "who controls low Earth orbit" maxim comes from his 2002 book *Astropolitik*, which adapts Halford Mackinder's geopolitical "heartland" formula to space. ### Production credits Producer Phil Andrews; video editor Sebastian Vega; motion graphics by Seth Laupus; director of production services Sam Wolf; thumbnail by Tom Grillo; supervising producer James Atamian; chief content officer Devin Emery.