![[images/The Oil Nobody Is Allowed to Buy.webp]] **Creator:** Maxinomics · **Published:** 2026-03-31 · **Length:** 16:12 · [Watch on YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWj39ekjwcE) > *If you've got a ship, a hidden transponder, and a clean Bill of Lading… you can move almost anything if the price is right.* (video description) ## 1) Detailed outline ### [0:00] Cold open: first you need a ship - Phil sets up the premise: it won't be a good ship, which is exactly the kind the oil smuggling business prefers. You don't care about the ship, the crew, or why the oil needs smuggling, only that someone who shouldn't be selling oil sold it to someone who shouldn't be buying it. - This is the **shadow market**, served by an informal armada of ships, a bit like pirates who had their monarch's blessing to prey on foreigners. Oil, though, is a unique thing to smuggle. - Sponsor tease: **DraftKings Predictions**. ### [0:41] The day you couldn't buy oil - The tanker **Sea Majesty** loads **700,000 barrels** of crude at a Russian port, crosses the Black Sea overnight and reaches the entrance of the **Bosphorus Strait**. The usual six-hour wait for the half-mile-wide channel stretches to 12 hours, then 24, as more tankers drop anchor. - By **December 5th** there are **28 ships** holding **20 million barrels**, enough to supply the United States for three days, waiting in the cold wind where two sea currents collide. This was the week it became illegal to freely buy and sell Russian oil. - Of the six places to load oil on the Black Sea, two were on Russian soil. Two weeks passed before ships moved, because they couldn't prove their oil wasn't illegal. - Four ships were towed out by tugs under **Turkish Navy** escort; their names, logs and captains were recorded as known members of the **shadow fleet**. ### [1:44] The smuggling checklist - The setup is a chokepoint, seven ports, 28 ships, oil from several countries, a rule against buying from one of them, and a **$75 million** cargo whose legitimacy rests on a single piece of paper. "This is a smuggler's paradise." - **Sanctions are a different kind of law.** A normal law like the **Clean Air Act** is meant to be permanent; a sanction is one country's law aimed at another country, explicitly to cause pain until it conforms, and it can vanish overnight with a treaty. Example: South Africa was barred from buying oil until it ended **apartheid**, a situation that lasted about 20 years. - **Oil is a requirement, not a nice-to-have.** Germany organized much of its WWII military around securing oil; Japan attacked the U.S. to buy time to seize oil-rich islands; many Middle East wars were at least partly about oil. If people will kill over it, they'll pay a lot for it. - **Marc Rich**, "the notorious and largest oil smuggler of all time," operating behind Switzerland's privacy protections, made an estimated **$1–2 billion** profit delivering oil to South Africa over those 20 years. - **Arbitrage math:** a ship holds about 1 million barrels. Normally prices between producers and buyers differ only by quality and location, so carrying Saudi oil to Australia isn't very profitable. A sanctioned buyer pays what Rich called the **"apartheid premium"**: fill the ship for **$60 million** in the Persian Gulf, sail four weeks down Africa's coast to **Durban**, collect **$90 million**. ### [4:17] First you need a ship - A new giant crude tanker is too much to lose if caught; a used mid-sized "workhorse" at half the price is still too expensive. The right choice is a **20-year-old rust bucket** headed for the scrapyard. - About **35 old tankers** a year used to be scrapped, sold to shipbreaking yards in India, Korea and China for **$5–6 million** in metal and machinery and deliberately run aground. The year after Russian oil was sanctioned, scrappings fell to **four**, and only **ten** have been scrapped in the past four years. Why scrap for $5 million when a smuggler will pay **$15 million**? The seller won't ask questions. - **The transponder, and "never let a good disaster go to waste."** The **Titanic** sinking produced international safety rules (initially about 40 pages on lifeboats and radios). The **1989 Exxon Valdez** spill built appetite for a transponder on every ship broadcasting location, heading, speed, name, country and cargo. **9/11** cemented it into international law. - Phil calls this a prime example of **function creep** (mission creep, the ratchet effect, or his favorite, "dual-use repurposing"): a safety device that also lets every government monitor every ship on the high seas. - **The deal:** with U.S. and European sanctions, Russia must sell about **$25 a barrel** below market. A contact in **India** will pay **$75 a barrel**, which nets about **$25 million**, covering the ship with money left over. - **Ship-to-ship (STS) transfer:** a friend's tanker that never leaves the Black Sea loads at Russian ports and transfers oil to other ships so they never log a Russian port call. The two ships meet in international waters with transponders off and tie up for about **48 hours** of pumping, leaving us with Russian oil and plausible deniability. - **The ocean favors smugglers.** Even in perfect conditions you have to be within about 15 miles to see a ship as a dot on the horizon, and transferring oil between ships isn't illegal in itself, just dangerous. - **Flags of convenience:** a ship is effectively a floating piece of its registry country, and beyond about 24 miles offshore only that country's navy can board it. There are no rules on where you register, so the hypothetical crew picks **Bolivia**, which has no navy because it's landlocked. Such registries have few rules and no way to enforce international ones. Bolivia charges **$500,000** a year in registration fees, meaningful money for an economy Phil ranks 95th in the world. "Everybody's a winner." The hard part left is getting paid. ### [8:46] Sponsor: DraftKings Predictions - Trading on real-world outcomes around the college basketball tournament (spreads, totals, winners), framed through shifts in the sport's "markets": the three-pointer, the transfer portal, the rising value of coaches. Promo code Maxinomics: trade $5, get $50 in prediction dollars (select states, including California, Florida and Texas). ### [9:41] The spot market - News clips of oil at **$90**, then above **$100**, with the biggest weekly spike on record. The price you hear about is the **spot price**: what it costs to have an already-loaded tanker change course and bring oil to you now. - Oil didn't always move like this (up 18% in a day, 90% in a week). For the century before 1970 it stayed between **$1 and $3**, while seven companies, the **Seven Sisters**, controlled extraction, shipping, refining, gas stations and the price itself, set through long-term contracts. - Iran kicked the companies out first, then Libya and Iraq, and by **1973** every Middle East country had taken back its fields. The new owners weren't in the shipping or refining business, so they sold to the highest bidder: the spot market (in reality more sophisticated, with immediate, next-month and year-out delivery for most commodities). A fuller history is promised for a future video. - **Marc Rich** was the first to see that, without the majors controlling everything, he could buy and sell huge volumes on the spot market, and that let him fill in one critical line on one critical document. - **The bill of lading:** whoever physically holds it owns the oil on the tanker; it is worth the cargo's value. It can be sold mid-voyage or handed to a bank as collateral, passing from the seller's bank to the buyer's bank, which releases the buyer's money. It lists origin, type of oil and destination. - If Rich's bill had said **Durban, South Africa**, he'd have been arrested, because banks are "one degree away from being a government agency." Instead it said **"on orders"**: destination not yet known, to be sold on the spot market. The paper trail stays clean enough for the banking system. - Back to our trip: the supplying ship's paperwork said Russia; ours said **"STS, international waters, on orders."** These are legitimate, common entries for ships doing nothing wrong, so smugglers hide in the shadow of normal trade. In India the bill of lading looks suspicious but valid, compliance doesn't flag it, and the money moves. ### [13:01] Nature hates a vacuum - Physics aside: a vacuum doesn't suck; atmospheric pressure pushes. A straw works because the atmosphere pushes liquid up into lower pressure, and even an endlessly long straw can only lift water about **35 feet** (Phil's figure), where the water's weight equals the atmosphere's. - The point: there is only one reason to smuggle oil. A **vacuum** appears between what a country must have and what it can get, and **sanctions create that vacuum**. - A second framing: South Africa as a living organism that needs energy. Oil is stored energy, "stored sunlight," also used to grow other energy like corn and wheat. Without it the organism breaks down into entropy (unrest, riots, mayhem), so the country will pay almost anything, and someone will buy an old boat and take the risk for that price. ### [14:59] Footnotes - Subscribe CTA: Phil says about 82% of regular viewers aren't subscribed (as phrased in the video), and channel size determines how many videos get made. 1. **Insurance as enforcement:** the ships at the Bosphorus were technically stopped because they couldn't get insurance. None of the **13 companies** that insure tankers would cover Russian crude, and Turkey, which has had two big oil spills near the Bosphorus, wouldn't risk paying for a cleanup. Because insurers are woven into the financial system, they must follow official sanctions, one more reach of "the long arm of the law." 2. **Why a BRICS currency appeals:** a few governments can enforce sanctions by cutting off the movement of money. If you don't control the pipes and gates of banking, they can be turned off or against you, which Russia, China and others understandably dislike. ## 2) Things mentioned ### Economic and market concepts - **Sanctions** as temporary, country-to-country laws meant to inflict pain; how they create a supply **vacuum** and a price premium. - **Arbitrage** and the **"apartheid premium"** ($60M cargo sold for $90M in Durban). - **Spot market** vs. long-term contracts; spot, next-month and forward delivery. - **Bill of lading** as a title document, collateral, and the bank-to-bank payment trail; "on orders" and "STS, international waters" entries. - Russian crude discount of about **$25/barrel**; hypothetical Indian buyer at **$75/barrel** and ~**$25M** profit. - Scrap economics: old tankers worth **$5–6M** as scrap vs. **$15M** to smugglers; scrappings falling from ~35/year to 4. - **Function creep** / mission creep / ratchet effect / dual-use repurposing. - Insurance and banking as enforcement chokepoints; the appeal of a **BRICS currency**. - Oil price history: **$1–3** for the century before 1970; recent spikes above **$100**. ### Shipping, places and infrastructure - The **Bosphorus Strait** jam: **28 tankers**, **20 million barrels**, December 5th; the **Sea Majesty** with 700,000 barrels. - The Black Sea's six oil-loading points (two Russian). - **Shadow fleet** tankers; **ship-to-ship transfers**; ship **transponders** that broadcast position, heading, speed, name, flag and cargo. - **Flags of convenience**; **Bolivia** as a landlocked registry ($500,000/year in fees). - Shipbreaking yards in **India, Korea and China**. - Routes: Persian Gulf to **Durban, South Africa**; Black Sea to **India**; Saudi Arabia to Australia as the unprofitable baseline. ### Organizations, companies and products - The **Seven Sisters** oil companies. - The **Turkish Navy**; the 13 tanker insurers. - Sponsor: **DraftKings Predictions** (promo code Maxinomics). ### Policy and history - U.S. and European sanctions on Russian oil. - The ~20-year oil embargo on **apartheid South Africa**. - The **Clean Air Act** (as a contrast with sanctions). - The **Titanic** and the maritime safety rules that followed; the **1989 Exxon Valdez** spill; **9/11** and ship-tracking mandates. - Oil in WWII strategy (Germany; Japan's attack on the U.S.); oil in Middle East wars. - Nationalization of Middle East oil fields (Iran, Libya, Iraq; all by 1973). - **BRICS** currency ambitions of Russia, China and others. ## 3) Biographies ### Maxinomics (channel / host) Morning Brew's economics channel (**@Maxinomics**), presented by producer **Phil Andrews**. This episode is a second-person "how you'd do it" walkthrough of oil smuggling under sanctions, sponsored by DraftKings Predictions. Credits from the description: video editor Christie Muldoon, motion graphics Luca Depardon, director of production services Sam Wolf, thumbnail Xingpei Shen, franchise content producer Tariq Abdellatif, and Morning Brew president Devin Emery. ### Phil Andrews (on-camera producer) "The guy in the videos and the comments." He narrates the Bosphorus standoff, plays the hypothetical smuggler buying a tanker and arranging a ship-to-ship transfer, explains bills of lading and the spot market, and delivers the footnotes on insurance and BRICS. ### Marc Rich (subject) The commodities trader the video calls the largest oil smuggler of all time. Operating from Switzerland, he made an estimated $1–2 billion delivering oil to apartheid-era South Africa, coined the "apartheid premium," and was among the first to exploit the spot market after the Seven Sisters lost control of Middle East oil. His use of "on orders" bills of lading is the video's model for how smuggled oil passes through banks. Background beyond the video: he founded the trading house that later became Glencore, was indicted in the U.S. in 1983 on tax evasion and sanctions-related charges, lived in Switzerland as a fugitive, was pardoned by President Bill Clinton in 2001, and died in 2013.